HOTESPN, NFL.com, The RingerFebruary 2026🇺🇸 USSports Analytics
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2026 NFL Draft Approaches: Teams Eyeing Trade-Up for Top QB Prospects

With the 2026 NFL Draft approaching, teams are positioning for blockbuster trades to move up for top QB prospects. The Jimmy Johnson trade value chart — created in the 1990s — remains the industry standard for evaluating draft pick trades, despite modern analytics showing it overvalues top picks. Whether you're an armchair GM or a fantasy football enthusiast, understanding pick value is essential for evaluating trade fairness.

Concept Fundamentals
3,000
Pick 1 Value (JJ)
Jimmy Johnson Chart
258
Total Draft Picks
7 rounds + compensatory
3 1sts
RG3 Trade (Biggest)
2012 Redskins-Rams
~12x
Pick 1 vs 32 Ratio
Jimmy Johnson Chart

Ready to run the numbers?

Why: NFL draft pick trades are among the most consequential decisions a franchise can make, yet evaluating trade fairness is notoriously difficult. The Jimmy Johnson chart has been the industry standard since the 1990s, but modern analytics reveal it significantly overvalues top picks. Teams that understand both valuation systems can identify lopsided trades and exploit market inefficiencies — just as the Rams did in the legendary RG3 trade that netted them three first-round picks.

How: We calculate trade value using two systems: the Jimmy Johnson chart (Pick 1 = 3,000 points, declining exponentially through 258) and the modern Harvard/Stuart chart (Value proportional to 1/√pick, providing a flatter curve). Each team's picks are summed under both systems, and the differential determines the trade winner. Fair trade suggestions are generated when value gaps exceed thresholds, and quantity-vs-quality analysis flags when multiple picks may outperform a single elite selection.

Total trade value for both teams under Jimmy Johnson and modern chartsWhich team wins the trade under each valuation system
Methodology
📊Dual Valuation System
Compares Jimmy Johnson (1990s industry standard) and Harvard/Stuart modern analytics — the two most widely used draft value frameworks
⚖️Fair Trade Engine
Automatically detects imbalanced trades and suggests pick additions to create equitable value on both sides
🏈Historical Trade Database
Includes 7 famous draft trades (RG3, Goff, Trubisky, Lance, Manning) as one-click examples for instant comparison

Run the calculator when you are ready.

Evaluate Your TradeUse the calculator below to see how this story affects you personally

Draft Picks (comma or space separated, 1-258)

draft_trade_analysis.sh
CALCULATED
$ analyze_draft_trade --teamA="1" --teamB="12, 96, 202"
Team A (JJ)
3,000
Team B (JJ)
1,355
Winner (JJ)
Team A
Differential
+1,645
Team A (Modern)
1000.0
Team B (Modern)
461.2
Winner (Modern)
Team A
Surplus (Team A)
+538.8
Fair Trade Suggestions
  • • Team A has 1,645 more JJ points. Team B could add a mid-round pick to balance.

📊 Draft Day Trade Simulator — Equivalent Pick Values

Enter a target pick to see equivalent value for moving up or down.

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📐 Calculation Breakdown

INPUTS
Team A Picks
1
Team B Picks
12, 96, 202
JIMMY JOHNSON
Team A (Jimmy Johnson)
3,000
1→3000
Team B (Jimmy Johnson)
1,355
Differential (JJ)
+1,645
Winner (JJ)
Team A
MODERN CHART
Team A (Modern)
1000.0
Team B (Modern)
461.2
Differential (Modern)
+538.8
Winner (Modern)
Team A

Jimmy Johnson Chart — Trade Value

Modern Chart — Trade Value

Jimmy Johnson vs Modern Chart (Sample Picks)

For educational and informational purposes only. Verify with a qualified professional.

NFL draft pick values are determined by the Jimmy Johnson chart (Pick 1 = 3,000 pts, declining through 258) and modern analytics using 1/√pick. Teams use these charts to evaluate trade fairness. This calculator compares Team A vs Team B picks, shows equivalent values for moving up or down, and provides fair trade suggestions.

📋 Key Takeaways

  • • The Jimmy Johnson chart assigns Pick 1 = 3,000 points, Pick 2 = 2,600, declining through 258 picks
  • Modern analytics (Harvard/Stuart) use 1/√pick — they value top picks less and mid-round picks more
  • • Teams often overpay to move up; the classic chart tends to favor the team receiving multiple picks
  • • All 7 rounds (258 picks with compensatory selections) are supported

💡 Did You Know?

🏆The RG3 trade (2012) gave the Rams 3 first-round picks—one of the biggest hauls in NFL historySource: Pro Football Reference
📊Jimmy Johnson created the chart in the 1990s; it has no statistical basis but remains the industry standardSource: Football Perspective
📈Modern charts show mid-round picks (3rd-5th) are undervalued in the classic chartSource: Harvard Sports Analysis
🔄The 2011 CBA rookie wage scale reduced top-pick salaries, changing draft economicsSource: NFL CBA
⚖️Trades are "fair" when total points are roughly equal on both sidesSource: Draft Trade Value
🎯Pick 1 is worth ~12x Pick 32 in the Jimmy Johnson chartSource: Draft Value Chart

📖 How Does the NFL Draft Pick Value Chart Work?

Jimmy Johnson, Hall of Fame coach of the Dallas Cowboys, developed the original draft value chart in the early 1990s with Geep Chryst. It assigns point values to each pick to facilitate trade negotiations.

Top of the Draft

Pick 1 = 3,000 pts, Pick 2 = 2,600, Pick 3 = 2,200, Pick 4 = 1,800. The curve steeply declines in the first round.

Modern Alternatives

Chase Stuart (Football Perspective) and Harvard Sports Analysis use Career Approximate Value (CAV) and 1/√pick models. They find the Johnson chart overvalues early picks and undervalues mid-round selections.

❓ Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Jimmy Johnson draft chart?

A point system assigning values to NFL draft picks (Pick 1 = 3000 pts) used to evaluate trade fairness. Created in the 1990s by the Dallas Cowboys.

Is the Jimmy Johnson chart still used?

Yes. Many teams use modified versions. Analysts prefer modern charts (Harvard/Stuart) based on actual player performance data.

How many picks are in the NFL draft?

256 in the standard 7 rounds (32 teams × 8 picks). With compensatory picks, up to ~258.

Which chart is more accurate?

Modern analytics suggest the Johnson chart overvalues top picks. The 1/√pick model better reflects historical player production.

What was the biggest draft trade ever?

The 2012 RG3 trade: Redskins gave up 3 first-round picks and a second to move from #6 to #2.

⚠️ Disclaimer: Draft value charts are estimates for trade evaluation. Actual outcomes depend on player quality, team needs, and market conditions. Not financial or betting advice.

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