STATISTICSDistributionsStatistics Calculator
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Geometric Distribution Calculator

Free geometric distribution calculator. P(X=k), P(Xโ‰คk), P(X>k), P(aโ‰คXโ‰คb). PMF bar chart, CDF step ch

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Why This Statistical Analysis Matters

Why: Statistical calculator for analysis.

How: Enter inputs and compute results.

๐ŸŽฒ
STATISTICSDistributions

Geometric Distribution โ€” Trials Until First Success

PMF, CDF, mean 1/p, memoryless property. Dice until 6, coin until heads, sales calls until close.

Real-World Scenarios โ€” Click to Load

Calculation Mode

Inputs

geometric_results.sh
CALCULATED
$ geometric --p=0.2 --mode="exact"
Primary Probability
8.1920%
Mean (1/p)
5.0000
Variance
20.0000
Median / Mode
4 / 1
Share:
Geometric Distribution
P(X=5)
8.1920%
p = 0.2Mean = 1/p = 5.00Memoryless โœ“
numbervibe.com/calculators/statistics/geometric-distribution-calculator

PMF Bar Chart โ€” P(X=k)

CDF Step Chart โ€” P(Xโ‰คk)

Survival Function โ€” P(X>k)

Memoryless Property Demo

P(X > s+t | X > s) = P(X > t). Given s=2 failures, additional trials until success = starting fresh.

P(X > 2+3 | X > 2)
51.2000%
P(X > 3)
51.2000%

โœ… Values match!

Calculation Breakdown

SUMMARY
Mean (1/p)
5.0000
1/0.2000
Variance
20.0000
(1-p)/pยฒ
ฯƒ
4.4721
Median
4
PROBABILITY
Primary Probability
8.1920%
P(X=5) = (1-0.2000)^{5-1} ร— 0.2000

For educational and informational purposes only. Verify with a qualified professional.

Key Takeaways

  • โ€ข Geometric models trials until the first success in repeated Bernoulli trials
  • โ€ข PMF: P(X=k) = (1-p)^(k-1) ร— p โ€” k failures then one success
  • โ€ข CDF: P(Xโ‰คk) = 1 - (1-p)^k; Survival: P(X>k) = (1-p)^k
  • โ€ข Mean = 1/p, Variance = (1-p)/pยฒ, Mode = 1 (always)
  • โ€ข Memoryless: P(X > s+t | X > s) = P(X > t) โ€” past failures don't affect future

Did You Know?

๐ŸŽฒFor a fair die (p=1/6), expected rolls to get a 6 is 6 โ€” but P(Xโ‰ค3) โ‰ˆ 42%Source: NIST
๐Ÿช™Fair coin (p=0.5): P(first heads on trial 1)=0.5, trial 2=0.25, trial 3=0.125Source: Khan Academy
๐Ÿ“žIf 10% of sales calls succeed, expect 10 calls per sale. P(โ‰ค5 calls) โ‰ˆ 41%Source: Sales analytics
๐ŸงฌDNA matching p=0.001: mean=1000 trials. P(โ‰ค500) โ‰ˆ 39%Source: Genetics
โฑ๏ธGeometric is the only discrete distribution with the memoryless propertySource: Wolfram
๐ŸŽฐSlot machines 5% win rate: mean 20 pulls per win. P(win within 10) โ‰ˆ 40%Source: Gaming

How It Works

Bernoulli Trials

Each trial is independent with success probability p. We count trials until the first success.

The PMF

P(X=k) = (1-p)^(k-1) ร— p โ€” (k-1) failures, then one success. k โ‰ฅ 1.

The CDF

P(Xโ‰คk) = 1 - (1-p)^k. Complement of "all k trials fail."

Memoryless Property

Given you've failed s times, distribution of additional trials until success = starting fresh. P(X > s+t | X > s) = P(X > t).

Mean and Variance

E(X) = 1/p (higher p โ†’ fewer trials). Var(X) = (1-p)/pยฒ. Small p โ†’ large variance.

Expert Tips

Geometric vs Binomial

Geometric: trials until first success. Binomial: number of successes in n fixed trials.

Exponential Connection

Geometric is the discrete analog of exponential โ€” both are memoryless.

Median

Median = โŒˆ-1/logโ‚‚(1-p)โŒ‰. For p=0.5, median=1; for p=0.1, medianโ‰ˆ7.

Range Probability

P(aโ‰คXโ‰คb) = CDF(b) - CDF(a-1) or sum P(X=k) for k=a..b.

Why Use This Calculator vs Other Tools?

FeatureThis CalculatorExcelR/TI-84
PMF + CDF + Survival chartsโœ…โš ๏ธ Manualโš ๏ธ Limited
7 real-world presetsโœ…โŒโŒ
Range P(aโ‰คXโ‰คb)โœ…โš ๏ธ Manualโš ๏ธ Limited
Memoryless property demoโœ…โŒโŒ
Copy & share & AIโœ…โŒโŒ

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the geometric distribution?

It models the number of trials until the first success in repeated independent Bernoulli trials with constant success probability p.

What is the memoryless property?

P(X > s+t | X > s) = P(X > t). Given you've failed s times, the distribution of additional trials until success is the same as starting from scratch.

Why is the mode always 1?

P(X=1) = p is the highest for any single value when p > 0. Each subsequent trial has lower probability (1-p)^(k-1) ร— p.

When geometric vs binomial?

Geometric: "How many trials until first success?" Binomial: "How many successes in n fixed trials?"

What is the expected value?

E(X) = 1/p. For p=0.2, expect 5 trials on average until first success.

How to compute P(a โ‰ค X โ‰ค b)?

Sum P(X=k) for k=a to b, or use CDF(b) - CDF(a-1) where CDF(0)=0.

Relationship to negative binomial?

Geometric is negative binomial with r=1 (trials until 1st success).

Relationship to exponential?

Geometric is the discrete analog of the exponential distribution โ€” both are memoryless.

Geometric by the Numbers

1/p
Mean (Expected Trials)
(1-p)/pยฒ
Variance
Mode=1
Always
Memoryless
Unique Property

Disclaimer: This calculator provides geometric distribution probabilities for educational and professional reference. Assumes independent Bernoulli trials with constant p. Verify against established statistical software for critical applications.

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