RISINGMet Office / Environment Canada public methodology summariesMarch 2026🇬🇧 UKGeneral
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Turn temperature, humidity, and wind into dew point, chill, heat stress, and a simple forecast path

Search interest in weather forecasts spikes around storms, heat waves, and travel weekends. This page explains the moisture and wind math behind many apps: dew point and vapor pressure describe mugginess; wind chill addresses cold wind; humidex-style indices address humid heat. You supply a future temperature endpoint and horizon to visualize a straight-line trend — a sanity check against a model snippet, not a replacement for a national forecast.

Concept Fundamentals
hPa @ T
Saturation e_s
°C from RH
Dew point
°C @ km/h
Wind chill
°C over hours
Trend Δ
Compute indicesUse the calculator below to see how this story affects you personally

About This Calculator: Weather Comfort & Forecast Trend

Why: Headlines quote temperatures while humidity and wind change how it feels; users want transparent indices and a quick trend sketch.

How: Enter °C, RH %, wind km/h, then hours ahead and an endpoint temperature. Outputs debounce after 500 ms.

Dew point and vapor pressure from standard Magnus–Tetens formsWind chill when air is cool and wind exceeds ~5 km/h

Sample Scenarios

Dry-bulb temperature — what a normal thermometer shows in the shade.
Percent saturation at the current air temperature.
Sustained wind near you; forecasts often quote 10 m open wind.
Length of the simple linear trend from now to your endpoint temperature.
Temperature you expect at the end of the horizon (from a forecast or scenario).
weather_indices.outCALCULATED
Dew point
9.0 °C
Feels-like (blend)
14.0 °C
Vapor e / e_s
11.50 hPa / 15.97 hPa
Comfort score
87 / 100
Wind chill
n/a
Humidex-style
n/a
ΔT over horizon
-5.0 °C
Headroom to sat.
4.47 hPa
riskLevel: MODERATE

Key metrics (°C)

Dry bulb, dew point, wind chill (or air when not applicable), humidex (or air when cool).

Moisture load vs saturation headroom

Actual vapor pressure compared with room left before saturation at the current temperature.

Comfort score snapshot

Higher scores favor mild temperatures and lower dew points (rule-of-thumb only).

Linear temperature trend

Five samples between now and your endpoint — illustrative straight line, not a model grid.

Calculation Steps

Step 1: Compute saturation and actual vapor pressure from temperature and RH.

Step 2: Estimate dew point and humidity comfort context.

Step 3: Apply wind chill (cold) or humidex (warm) as conditional feels-like components.

Step 4: Create linear forecast path between now and endpoint temperature.

How to Use Forecast Comfort Scenarios

Use dew point and wind trends together, not single headline temperature values.

Formulas Used

dewPointC = f(airTempC, relativeHumidity)

Disclaimer: Educational weather-comfort estimator only.

Official Data Sources

⚠️For educational and informational purposes only. Verify with a qualified professional.

Why forecast apps show dew point, wind, and different “feels like” values

Your thermometer reads dry-bulb temperature — how hot the air is. Relative humidity then describes how full that air is of moisture relative to that temperature, which is why RH alone can mislead when comparing morning vs afternoon. Dew point stays tied to the actual water-vapor content; two days with the same dew point but different temperatures will have different RH readings.

Wind accelerates heat loss from skin in cold weather (wind chill index). In warm, humid weather, evaporation of sweat is less efficient, so heat-stress indices such as humidex push the “feels like” number above the dry bulb. This calculator separates those ingredients and adds a straight-line temperature scenario you control — useful for “if the model is right about tonight’s low, what path are we on?”

~6.11 hPa
Reference vapor scale
km/h
Wind for chill index
°C dew
Moisture fingerprint
168 h
Max horizon here

Core formulas (compact)

Vapor pressure & dew point

e_s(T) ≈ 6.112·exp(17.67·T/(T+243.5)) hPa e = (RH/100)·e_s Dew point: invert Magnus form from e

Wind chill & humidex

WC = 13.12 + 0.6215·T − 11.37·V^0.16 + 0.3965·T·V^0.16 Humidex uses vapor pressure from dew point (Canada-style).

Did you know?

  • The Met Office and other agencies publish “feels like” values that may blend wind, humidity, and sometimes radiation — not identical to any single textbook formula.
  • Wind chill is about cooling rate for exposed skin; it does not mean your thermometer drops when wind blows — the air temperature is still T.
  • When dew point is within about 1 °C of air temperature, fog or low cloud formation is much more likely if cooling continues.
  • Urban heat islands can keep night-time temperatures several degrees warmer than nearby rural stations — compare forecasts to a sensor near you.
  • Humidex and heat index family metrics vary by country; thresholds for “extreme heat” alerts differ between jurisdictions.
  • Linear trends in this calculator are a teaching device; numerical weather prediction uses physics on a 3-D grid, not straight lines.

How to use this tool

1. Now-cast

Enter current air temperature, RH, and sustained wind at your location (km/h).

2. Read indices

Compare dew point, optional wind chill, optional humidex-style value, and the combined feels-like pick.

3. Sketch a trend

Set hours ahead and an endpoint temperature from a forecast you trust; see a five-point linear path.

Field tips

Use 10 m open-wind estimates when possible; shelter cuts chill less than forecasts suggest.
Indoor RH sensors drift — calibrate occasionally if you rely on them for mold-risk planning.
For heat waves, track overnight low: recovery matters as much as daytime peak.
Marine layers can hold dew point high even when sun breaks out aloft — check multiple model levels.

Dew point comfort bands (rule-of-thumb)

Dew point (°C)How it often feels (outdoor)
Below ~10Usually dry / crisp for temperate climates
10–15Comfortable for many people
15–18Noticeably humid
Above ~18Oppressive / tropical-feeling for cool-climate residents

FAQ

How is dew point different from relative humidity?

Relative humidity is the fraction of moisture the air holds versus the maximum it could hold at that temperature, so it changes when temperature changes even if the actual water vapor stays the same. Dew point is the temperature at which that vapor would saturate — it tracks the absolute moisture in the air. Forecasters often prefer dew point for comparing how muggy two days feel: for example, a dew point near 10 °C feels fairly dry in the UK, while 18 °C and above often feels sticky.

When does wind chill apply?

Wind chill formulas estimate how quickly exposed skin loses heat in moving air versus still air at the same thermometer reading. Environment Canada publishes a wind chill index using air temperature in °C and wind speed in km/h, most meaningful when wind is at least about 5 km/h and air is cool (typically around 10 °C or below). It is not a separate thermometer reading at your house; it is a derived index for cold-stress awareness.

What is humidex and when should I trust it?

Humidex (used in Canada) combines temperature and humidity into one “feels hotter” number on the Celsius scale. It grows when dew point is high and temperature is warm — classic muggy summer conditions. It is less informative in cool weather; this calculator only surfaces humidex-style values when air temperature is at least about 20 °C. Always follow official heat warnings from your national meteorological service.

How does the forecast trend line work here?

This tool does not download live model data. You enter your current air temperature, a forecast horizon in hours, and an endpoint temperature you are planning for (for example tonight’s low or tomorrow’s model high). We draw a straight-line temperature path between now and that endpoint and sample it at five times. Real forecasts curve (fronts, clouds, sea breezes); use this as a quick scenario sketch, not a replacement for Met Office, NOAA, or ECMWF output.

Why might my “feels like” differ from an app?

Apps blend station data, radar, and proprietary “feels like” blends (sometimes mixing wind chill, heat index, radiation, and even sun angle). Here we separate dew point, wind chill (when cool and breezy), and humidex-style heat (when warm). Small differences in input rounding, wind height (10 m vs surface), and whether the app uses wet-bulb or radiation adjustments explain most gaps.

Is this medical or safety advice?

No. Extreme heat and cold can be dangerous; use official alerts, hydration guidance, and shelter plans from public health and meteorological agencies. These formulas are for education and rough planning.

Reference statistics

UK mean winter lows and summer highs vary widely by latitude and coast; single-station records do not replace a forecast for your postcode. Global reanalysis datasets (e.g. ERA5) provide long-run baselines if you are researching climate trends rather than tomorrow’s jacket decision.

Sources to dig deeper

Disclaimer

Educational estimates only. Not a substitute for official forecasts, warnings, or professional meteorological advice. Indices can mislead if inputs are unrepresentative of your microclimate.

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