HOTFederation of American Scientists, FEMA, Glasstone & DolanMarch 2026๐ŸŒ GLOBALSafety
โ˜ข๏ธ

Nuclear Weapon Effects: Understanding Blast Radius and Survival

Kurzgesagt's nuclear war videos have hundreds of millions of views. With geopolitical tensions, understanding blast radius, thermal radiation, and fallout zones based on weapon yield has never been more relevant. This educational tool uses declassified physics from Glasstone & Dolan and NUKEMAP methodology to help users understand what happens when a nuclear weapon detonates โ€” and how distance and shelter affect survival.

Concept Fundamentals
15 kt
Hiroshima Yield
Historical
300-800 kt
Typical ICBM
Strategic
50 Mt
Tsar Bomba
Largest tested
500ร—
Best Shelter PF
Calculate Nuclear Weapon EffectsEnter yield, distance, and shelter to see blast radii and survival probability

About This Calculator: Nuclear Weapon Effects

Why: Kurzgesagt's nuclear war content has hundreds of millions of views. With geopolitical tensions, people want to understand blast radius, thermal radiation, and fallout โ€” not from fear-mongering but from education. This calculator provides declassified physics in an accessible format.

How: Enter weapon yield (kilotons), burst type (airburst/surface), burst altitude, your distance, shelter type, and wind conditions. The calculator computes fireball radius, blast overpressure zones, thermal burn radii, radiation dose, fallout zone dimensions, and survival probability.

Fireball radius and blast overpressure zones (5 psi, 2 psi)Thermal radiation radii (3rd-degree and 1st-degree burns)

๐Ÿ“‹ Quick Examples โ€” Click to Load

Weapon yield in kt TNT equivalent
Airburst maximizes blast; surface creates fallout
Detonation height above ground
Distance from ground zero
Protection factor reduces radiation
For fallout zone (surface burst)
Degrees (270 = west)
nuclear_effects_analysis.shCALCULATED
Fireball Radius
416 m
5 psi Blast
1.30 km
2 psi Blast
2.27 km
Thermal 3rdยฐ
2.51 km
Thermal 1stยฐ
4.43 km
Radiation Dose
400 rem
Survival Probability
42.8%
Shelter PF
1ร—

๐Ÿ“ˆ Blast Effects by Distance

Overpressure and thermal zones vs. distance from ground zero

๐Ÿ“Š Effect Radii Comparison

Fireball, blast, and thermal radii for current yield

๐Ÿฉ Casualty Zone Distribution

Relative area of each effect zone (proportional to radius squared)

๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ Shelter Protection Factor Comparison

Radiation dose reduction by shelter type

โš ๏ธFor educational and informational purposes only. Verify with a qualified professional.

Nuclear weapon effects are governed by well-understood physics, much of it declassified since the Cold War. Glasstone & Dolan's "Effects of Nuclear Weapons" and NUKEMAP methodology provide empirical formulas for fireball radius (0.066 ร— Y^0.4 km), blast overpressure zones (5 psi โ‰ˆ 0.28 ร— Y^1/3 km), and thermal radiation (3rd-degree burns โ‰ˆ 0.38 ร— Y^0.41 km). Kurzgesagt's nuclear war videos have hundreds of millions of views; this calculator helps users understand blast radius, thermal radiation, and fallout zones based on weapon yield โ€” an educational tool for preparedness and awareness.

15 kt
Hiroshima Yield
50 Mt
Tsar Bomba (Largest)
300 kt
Typical ICBM Warhead
500
Shelter PF (Best)

Sources: Federation of American Scientists, FEMA, Glasstone & Dolan.

Key Takeaways

  • โ€ข Fireball radius scales as Y^0.4; blast overpressure zones scale as Y^1/3 โ€” doubling yield does not double the destructive radius
  • โ€ข Airburst maximizes blast and thermal damage over area; surface burst creates massive local fallout
  • โ€ข Shelter protection factors range from 1 (none) to 500+ (dedicated fallout shelter) โ€” getting inside matters
  • โ€ข Fallout travels downwind; dangerous zone length โ‰ˆ wind speed ร— 24 hours; width โ‰ˆ 20% of length

Did You Know?

โ˜ข๏ธ The Hiroshima bomb (15 kt) had a fireball radius of ~180 m and caused ~70,000 immediate deaths
๐Ÿ’ฅ The Tsar Bomba (50 Mt) was tested in 1961; its fireball was ~8 km in diameter
๐Ÿ›ก๏ธ A basement provides ~10ร— radiation protection; a dedicated shelter can provide 200-1000ร—
๐ŸŒฌ๏ธ Fallout follows the 7-10 rule: for every 7-fold increase in time, dose rate drops by ~10
๐ŸŽฏ Modern MIRV warheads are typically 100-800 kt for optimal blast efficiency vs. weight
๐Ÿ“ 5 psi overpressure destroys most residential buildings; 2 psi causes significant damage

How Do Nuclear Effect Formulas Work?

Fireball and Blast

Fireball radius R = 0.066 ร— Y^0.4 (km), where Y is yield in kilotons. Blast overpressure (5 psi, 2 psi) scales as Y^1/3: R_5psi โ‰ˆ 0.28 ร— Y^1/3, R_2psi โ‰ˆ 0.49 ร— Y^1/3. These formulas come from scaled distance relationships in Glasstone & Dolan.

Thermal Radiation

Thermal (flash) burn radii: 3rd-degree โ‰ˆ 0.38 ร— Y^0.41 km, 1st-degree โ‰ˆ 0.67 ร— Y^0.41 km. Thermal energy scales roughly with yield; distance attenuation follows inverse-square with atmospheric absorption.

Fallout and Shelter

Surface bursts loft debris; fallout plume length โ‰ˆ wind speed (km/h) ร— 24 hours; width โ‰ˆ 20% of length. Shelter protection factor (PF) divides dose: PF 10 means 1/10th the exposure. FEMA recommends 24-48 hours minimum shelter time.

Expert Tips

Get inside immediately โ€” the first 10-15 minutes after detonation are critical for avoiding fallout. Even a poor shelter is far better than being outdoors.
Do not look at the flash. Thermal radiation can cause flash blindness and retinal burns at distances far beyond other effects.
Stay sheltered 24-48 hours minimum. Fallout radiation drops rapidly; the first few hours are the most dangerous.
Know your direction from likely targets. Fallout travels downwind; if you are upwind, local fallout risk is lower (but prompt radiation from the burst still applies).

Historical and Modern Nuclear Weapon Yields

WeaponYieldFireball (km)5 psi (km)
Hiroshima (Little Boy)15 kt0.180.68
Tactical (W54)0.01-1 kt0.03-0.070.06-0.28
W87 (Minuteman III)300 kt0.582.0
B83 (Largest US)1.2 Mt0.953.2
Tsar Bomba50 Mt3.812.8

Frequently Asked Questions

How do nuclear weapons work?

Nuclear weapons release energy through fission (splitting heavy atoms like uranium-235) or fusion (combining light atoms like hydrogen). A fission primary triggers a fusion secondary in thermonuclear weapons. The energy is released as blast wave (50%), thermal radiation (35%), ionizing radiation (10%), and residual fallout (5%). Yield is measured in kilotons (kt) or megatons (Mt) of TNT equivalent.

What is an airburst vs surface burst?

An airburst detonates above ground (typically 500-2000m for maximum blast effect). It maximizes overpressure and thermal damage over a wider area but produces minimal local fallout. A surface burst detonates at or near ground level, creating a crater and lofting massive amounts of radioactive debris into the atmosphere, producing dangerous fallout plumes downwind.

How far does fallout travel?

Fallout travels downwind at roughly the wind speed. For a surface burst, the dangerous fallout zone extends about 24 hours of wind travel in length (e.g., 360 km at 15 km/h wind) and typically 20% of that in width. Heavier particles settle first; lighter particles can travel hundreds of kilometers. Radiation intensity decreases with time (7-10 rule: for every 7-fold increase in time, dose rate drops by 10).

What protection do shelters offer?

Shelter protection factors (PF) reduce radiation exposure: none (PF 1), residential building (PF 2-3), basement (PF 10), concrete building (PF 40-100), dedicated fallout shelter (PF 200-1000). A PF of 10 means you receive 1/10th the dose. FEMA recommends staying sheltered at least 24-48 hours after detonation, then evacuating if necessary.

How big are modern nuclear weapons?

Modern arsenals range from tactical weapons (0.3-50 kt) to strategic warheads. US W88 (Trident) is ~475 kt; W87 (Minuteman III) ~300 kt; B83 bomb ~1.2 Mt. Russian RS-28 Sarmat can carry multiple 800 kt MIRVs. The largest ever tested was the Tsar Bomba at 50 Mt (1961). Most strategic warheads are 100-800 kt for optimal blast efficiency.

What should you do during a nuclear attack?

Get inside the nearest substantial building immediately. Go to the center or basement, away from windows. Stay inside for at least 24-48 hours. Listen to emergency broadcasts. If outdoors when the flash occurs, take cover behind anything solid within seconds; lie flat to reduce thermal exposure. Do not look at the flash. After the blast, avoid fallout by staying sheltered until authorities advise.

Key Statistics

15 kt
Hiroshima Yield
50 Mt
Tsar Bomba
500ร—
Best Shelter PF
24h
Min Shelter Time

Official Data Sources

โš ๏ธ Disclaimer: This calculator provides estimates based on declassified physics formulas (Glasstone & Dolan, NUKEMAP methodology). Actual effects depend on terrain, weather, building construction, and many other factors. This is an educational tool for understanding nuclear weapon effects โ€” not a substitute for official emergency guidance. Consult FEMA and local authorities for preparedness information.

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