Trump Wants to 'Take Over' Elections. These States Are Prime Targets.
A New York Times investigation revealed federal strategies to influence state election administration. Some states have robust safeguards — independent commissions, paper trails, risk-limiting audits — while others are more exposed. This calculator scores your state's institutional defenses.
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📊 Safeguard Score Breakdown
Points by category (election-vuln-breakdown)
📈 Hypothetical Vulnerability Over Time
As safeguards are added/removed (election-vuln-line)
🥧 Weight Distribution
Safeguard category weights (election-vuln-doughnut)
🗺️ Top 10 States by Vulnerability
Pre-populated comparison (election-vuln-states)
⚠️For educational and informational purposes only. Verify with a qualified professional.
A New York Times investigation revealed federal strategies to influence state election administration. Some states have robust safeguards — independent commissions, paper trails, risk-limiting audits — while others are more exposed. This calculator scores your state's institutional defenses based on NCSL, EAC, Brennan Center, and Verified Voting data.
Sources: NCSL, EAC, Brennan Center, Verified Voting
Key Takeaways
- • Independent commissions (+20 pts) and risk-limiting audits (+20 pts) are the strongest safeguards
- • Split or nonpartisan legislatures (+10 pts) create natural checks against unilateral changes
- • Full paper ballot trails (+15 pts) enable meaningful audits and recounts
- • Universal mail-in (+15 pts) and automatic voter registration (+10 pts) reduce administrative friction
6 Facts About US Election Infrastructure
1. Only 10 states have implemented risk-limiting audits. RLAs use statistical sampling to verify results with high confidence.
2. Twenty-three states have some form of independent election commission, separating administration from partisan officials.
3. Five states still lack full paper ballot trails, making audits and recounts difficult or impossible.
4. Twenty-one states plus DC offer universal or no-excuse mail-in voting.
5. Twenty-two states plus DC have automatic voter registration.
6. Trifecta control (governor + both chambers) exists in roughly half of states, enabling rapid election law changes.
How Safeguards Work
Independent commissions reduce the ability of a single official to direct election administration. Paper trails allow post-election verification. Risk-limiting audits statistically confirm outcomes. Split legislatures require compromise. Automatic registration and mail-in access reduce administrative bottlenecks that can be exploited.
No single safeguard is sufficient. Defense in depth — multiple overlapping protections — is the goal. States with several strong safeguards are less exposed to federal or state-level pressure.
Expert Tips
Strong vs Weak States Comparison
| Factor | Strong (e.g., CO, OR) | Weak (e.g., TX, some) |
|---|---|---|
| Commission | Independent | Secretary of state |
| Paper trail | Full | Partial or none |
| Audit | RLA | Traditional or none |
| Mail-in | Universal | Excuse only |
| Legislature | Split or checks | Trifecta |
Frequently Asked Questions
What makes a state vulnerable to federal election interference?
States with single-party control (trifecta), no independent election commission, partial or no paper ballot trails, restrictive mail-in voting, and weak post-election audits are more exposed. A New York Times investigation found that federal strategies to influence state election administration target states with fewer institutional safeguards.
How many states have risk-limiting audits?
Only 10 states have implemented risk-limiting audits (RLAs), which use statistical sampling to verify election results. RLAs are considered the gold standard for post-election verification. Traditional audits and no mandatory audit laws leave states more vulnerable to undetected errors or manipulation.
What is an independent election commission?
An independent election commission is a nonpartisan or bipartisan body that administers elections separately from the secretary of state or governor. About 23 states have some form of independent commission. These bodies can resist political pressure and maintain public trust in election administration.
Why does a split legislature provide a safeguard?
When the legislature is split between parties (or nonpartisan), it is harder for one party to push through changes to election laws without compromise. Trifecta control (governor + both chambers) allows rapid changes with minimal oversight. Split control creates natural checks and balances.
Which states have the strongest election safeguards?
Colorado, Oregon, and Washington are often cited as having robust safeguards: independent commissions or nonpartisan administration, full paper trails, universal mail-in voting, automatic voter registration, and risk-limiting audits. These states typically score 80+ on institutional safeguard indices.
Can this calculator predict actual election interference?
No. This calculator scores institutional safeguards based on state laws and structures. It does not predict whether interference will occur. Vulnerability is a measure of exposure — states with fewer safeguards are more exposed to potential influence, not guaranteed targets.
Key Statistics
Sources & Disclaimer
⚠️ Disclaimer: This calculator is for educational purposes only. It scores institutional safeguards based on publicly available data. It does not predict interference, assess intent, or constitute legal or policy advice. State laws change frequently. Consult NCSL, EAC, and state election officials for current information.