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Expected Goals (xG) from Shot Data

Estimate expected goals from each shot using distance, angle, body part, shot type, and assist. Compare total xG to actual goals to assess over/underperformance.

Concept Fundamentals
Shot quality → prob
xG Model
Goal probability
Opta / StatsBomb
Data Sources
Event data providers
Distance + angle + body
Key Factors
Shot features
~0.1 xG baseline
Avg Shot
10% conversion
Calculate xGUse the calculator below for pitch and football metrics

⚽ Why This Metric Matters

Why It Matters

xG isolates chance quality from finishing. It helps analysts, teams, and fans evaluate attacking performance and predict regression.

How It's Applied

Enter shot data: distance (m), angle (°), body part, shot type, assist. Penalties are fixed at 0.76. Total xG is the sum of per-shot xG.

Key Insights

  • ●Distance and angle are the strongest predictors.
  • ●Penalties convert at ~76% historically.
  • ●Over/underperformance vs xG can indicate luck or skill.
Sources:FBrefOptaUEFA

📋 Quick Examples — Click to Load

Shot Data

xG: 0.599
xG: 0.741
xG: 0.488
xg_analysis.shCALCULATED
Total xG
1.827
Avg xG/shot
0.609
Actual Goals
1
Status
Underperforming

⚽ Football Facts

🎯

Penalties are assigned 0.76 xG.

📊

~75% of goals come from inside the box.

⚽

Elite strikers average 0.5–0.8 xG per 90.

Expected Goals (xG) measures shot quality from historical conversion rates. Factors: distance (−0.1 per m), angle (+0.02 per °), body part (header −0.3), assist type (through +0.15, cross +0.05). Penalties fixed at 0.76. Logistic: xG = 1/(1+e^(-logit)).

0.76
Penalty xG
0.11
Avg open play xG
6m
High xG zone
75%
Goals inside box

Sources: FBref, Opta, UEFA.

Key Takeaways

  • • xG isolates chance quality from finishing; useful for comparing teams and strikers.
  • • Distance and angle are the strongest predictors; body part and assist type add nuance.
  • • Over/underperformance vs xG can indicate luck or finishing skill over samples.
  • • Top strikers average 0.5–0.8 xG per 90.

Did You Know?

🔢 Opta and StatsBomb pioneered xG models in the 2010s.
📊 ~75% of goals come from inside the penalty area.
💡 Headers convert at lower rates than foot shots from similar positions.
🌍 Through balls create higher xG chances than crosses on average.
📈 Team xG correlates with league position over a season.
🎯 Penalties are excluded in some "non-penalty xG" analyses.

How Does xG Work?

Logistic Model

logit = 0.5 - 0.1×distance + 0.02×angle + modifiers. xG = 1/(1+e^(-logit)). Closer and wider = higher xG.

Modifiers

Header: −0.3. Through ball: +0.15. Cross: +0.05. Penalty: fixed 0.76 (historical conversion).

Aggregation

Total xG = sum of per-shot xG. Compare to actual goals to assess over/underperformance.

Expert Tips

Use recent form (last 5–10 games) for xG; seasonal averages can lag tactical changes.
Non-penalty xG removes penalty variance; useful for comparing open-play strikers.
xG per shot > 0.15 indicates elite chance quality; < 0.08 suggests low-quality attempts.
Team xG difference (xG for − xG against) predicts league position better than raw goals.

xG by Shot Type

Shot TypeTypical xG
Penalty0.76
Tap-in (3m, 75°)0.6–0.8
Close range (8m, 50°)0.25–0.4
Long range (25m, 15°)0.02–0.05

Frequently Asked Questions

What is Expected Goals (xG)?

xG measures shot quality based on historical conversion rates. Factors include distance, angle, body part, and assist type. A shot from 6m at 60° has much higher xG than one from 25m at 10°.

How is xG calculated per shot?

xG uses a logistic regression model: logit = 0.5 - 0.1×distance + 0.02×angle + modifiers. Penalties are fixed at 0.76 xG. Headers get a -0.3 modifier; through balls add +0.15.

What is a good xG per shot?

Open play shots average 0.10–0.12 xG. Chances inside 6m can exceed 0.5. Penalties are 0.76. A striker averaging 0.15+ xG per shot is elite.

Why compare xG to actual goals?

Overperformance (goals &gt; xG) suggests finishing luck or skill; underperformance suggests poor finishing or bad luck. Over a season, regression toward xG is common.

What is xG per 90?

Total xG divided by minutes played × 90. Top strikers average 0.5–0.8 xG/90. Team xG/90 indicates attacking quality independent of finishing variance.

Do penalties count in xG?

Yes. Penalties are assigned 0.76 xG (historical conversion rate). Some analysts exclude penalties for &quot;open play xG&quot; to isolate non-penalty chance quality.

Key Statistics

0.76
Penalty xG
0.11
Avg open play
75%
Goals in box
0.5–0.8
Elite xG/90

Official Data Sources

FBref ↗
xG and shot data
Opta ↗
Advanced analytics
UEFA ↗
European competition stats
StatsBomb ↗
xG methodology

⚠️ Disclaimer: This calculator is for educational purposes only. xG models vary by provider. This is a simplified model. Not financial or betting advice.

For educational and informational purposes only. Verify with a qualified professional.

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